Does Development Reduce Migration?

Michael Clemens

No 8592, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy. A lengthy literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a "mobility transition", emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income, and only thereafter falls. This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro- and micro-level data. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.

Keywords: emigration; migration; mobility; development; growth; transition; hump; lifecycle; inequality; poverty; aid; demand; pressure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2014-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-gro and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (130)

Forthcoming - published in: Robert E.B. Lucas, ed. (2014), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development. London: Edward Elgar, Chap. 6, pp. 152–185.

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Working Paper: Does Development Reduce Migration? (2016)
Chapter: Does development reduce migration? (2014)
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