China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market Consequences

Fei Wang (), Liqiu Zhao () and Zhong Zhao
Additional contact information
Fei Wang: Renmin University of China
Liqiu Zhao: Renmin University of China

No 9746, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: China initiated its family planning policy in 1962 and one-child policy in 1980 and allows all couples to have two children as of 1st January, 2016. This paper systematically examines the labor market consequences of China's family planning policies. First, we briefly review the major historical evolution of China's family planning policies. Second, we investigate the effects of these policies on the labor market, focusing on the size and quality of the working-age population and its age and gender composition and paying special attention to regional as well as rural-urban differences in the demographic structure resulting from the interaction of the family planning policies and internal migration. Last, we discuss undergoing and prospective policy changes and potential consequences. Though urban areas and coastal provinces have implemented stricter family planning policies, our analysis shows that because of internal migration, the aging problem is more severe in rural areas and in inland provinces. Our simulation results further indicate that the new two-child policy may be too late and too little to alleviate the aging problem in China.

Keywords: quantity–quality model; One-Child Policy; sex ratio; aging; migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 J21 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2016-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-dem, nep-lab and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published - revised version published in: Journal of Population Economics , 2017, 30 (1), 31-68

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Journal Article: China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences (2017)
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