Augmenting Bottom-up Metamodels with Predicates

Ross Gore (), Saikou Diallo (), Christopher Lynch () and Jose Padilla ()
Additional contact information
Ross Gore: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=Sp4pikIAAAAJ
Saikou Diallo: http://www.vmasc.odu.edu/diallo.html
Christopher Lynch: http://www.vmasc.odu.edu/lynch.html
Jose Padilla: http://www.vmasc.odu.edu/padilla.html

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2017, vol. 20, issue 1, 4

Abstract: Metamodeling refers to modeling a model. There are two metamodeling approaches for ABMs: (1) top-down and (2) bottom-up. The top down approach enables users to decompose high-level mental models into behaviors and interactions of agents. In contrast, the bottom-up approach constructs a relatively small, simple model that approximates the structure and outcomes of a dataset gathered from the runs of an ABM. The bottom-up metamodel makes behavior of the ABM comprehensible and exploratory analyses feasible. For most users the construction of a bottom-up metamodel entails: (1) creating an experimental design, (2) running the simulation for all cases specified by the design, (3) collecting the inputs and output in a dataset and (4) applying first-order regression analysis to find a model that effectively estimates the output. Unfortunately, the sums of input variables employed by first-order regression analysis give the impression that one can compensate for one component of the system by improving some other component even if such substitution is inadequate or invalid. As a result the metamodel can be misleading. We address these deficiencies with an approach that: (1) automatically generates Boolean conditions that highlight when substitutions and tradeoffs among variables are valid and (2) augments the bottom-up metamodel with the conditions to improve validity and accuracy. We evaluate our approach using several established agent-based simulations.

Keywords: Metamodel; Agent-Based Simulation; Statistical Modeling; Predicates; Validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01-31
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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