Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach

Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (), María Isabel Brun-Martos (), Anabel Forte () and Emili Tortosa-Ausina
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Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll: Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
María Isabel Brun-Martos: Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
Anabel Forte: Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain

No 2014/06, Working Papers from Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of public spending on the probability of municipal reelection of Spanish local governments during the 2000-2007 period, using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that, in general, increases in local government spending positively impact on the chances of reelection of local governments. Moreover, the capital expenditure over the whole period affects positively to the reelection probability, although the pre-electoral one is preferred, and the electorate rewards increases in current expenditures only in the period before elections. The use of Bayesian techniques is particularly interesting, since results are not boiled down to a summary effect such as the average; on the contrary, it shows exactly how a given covariate affects the probability of being reelected.

Keywords: Bayesian; election; local government; opportunistic policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D60 H71 H72 H74 H75 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pbe, nep-pol and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jau:wpaper:2014/06

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