Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

Annarita Colasante (), Simone Alfarano, Eva Camacho-Cuena () and Mauro Gallegati
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Eva Camacho-Cuena: LEE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Eva Camacho Cuena ()

No 2016/26, Working Papers from Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain)

Abstract: We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment (LtFE) using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium (REE) is not a meaningful description for subjects' expectations, (ii) which are, instead, better described by an adaptive learning scheme. (iii) Subjects exhibit a higher degree of inertia when revising long-run expectations vis-à-vis short-run expectations.

Keywords: Experiment; Expectations; Coordination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E37 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment (2018)
Working Paper: Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/26

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