Are semi-urban spillovers the answer to left-behind places in rural Europe? The case of the Portuguese municipalities

Luisa Alamá-Sabater (), Miguel Ángel Márquez (), Emili Tortosa-Ausina and Júlia Cravo ()
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Luisa Alamá-Sabater: Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
Miguel Ángel Márquez: Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain
Júlia Cravo: Sectoral Business Statistics Unit, Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Lisboa, Portugal

No 2022/14, Working Papers from Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain)

Abstract: In the context of an extension of the traditional hypotheses considered by the Carlino-Mills studies, the primary aim of this paper is to test whether spillovers generated by employment change in urban or semi-urban areas have an impact on population growth in neighboring rural municipalities. To do this we develop a spatial econometric model capable of testing all the interactions existing between the different types of territories. We apply the model to 278 continental municipalities in Portugal during the period 2010–2018. The findings are particularly relevant in that they do not corroborate the “jobs follow people” hypothesis, and they reveal the positive and significant interterritorial connections between change in employment in semi-urban municipalities and population change in rural municipalities. The results suggest policies should aim to promote semi-urban-rural diffusion as a way of reversing rural depopulation.

Keywords: depopulation; left-behind places; neighbors; rural; spatial effects; urban (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 O18 O21 R1 R23 R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
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