Controlled infection to exit COVID-19 lockdown: a first utilitarian analysis

Chris Hope
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Chris Hope: Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

Working Papers from Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

Abstract: The UK-wide lockdown to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented. The government could offer the opportunity for healthy people to choose to be immediately infected with COVID-19 in a controlled way and then confined to their homes until they are no longer infectious. They would then be able to resume something closer to normal life, once sufficient numbers were immune and the government allowed it. We show here that this option could be attractive to many, with an overall net benefit for a representative young, healthy person of 0.34 to 0.71 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY). The parameters with the greatest influence on this net benefit are identified.

Date: 2020-04
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