The Great Moderation: Evidence from Five Asian Emerging Countries

WenShow Fang, Jen-Ching Tseng and Shu-Ching Cheng
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WenShow Fang: Department of Economics, Feng Chia University, Taiwan
Jen-Ching Tseng: Department of Finance, Ling Tung University, Taiwan and Department of Statistics, Feng Chia University, Taiwan
Shu-Ching Cheng: Department of Economics, Feng Chia University, Taiwan

Journal of Economics and Management, 2011, vol. 7, issue 2, 227-256

Abstract: Most of the literature that investigates the Great Moderation of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth focuses on OECD developed countries, and few studies discuss emerging economies in Asia. By employing quarterly real GDP growth rates over the period 1960-2009 for China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, we find evidence of a structural change in GDP growth volatility for each of the five countries. The break date, however, differs among the countries. The Great Moderation emerges in China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan, while the growth volatility increases in Singapore. Using the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean (ARCH-M) model, we find that the volatility of output growth negatively affects output growth in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, and is only significant in Singapore. The volatility positively affects the growth rate in Korea and Taiwan, and is only significant in Taiwan. The policy implications are discussed. Finally, Taiwan experiences different relationships between economic growth volatility and growth in different volatility regimes.

Keywords: real GDP growth and volatility; the great moderation; outliers; structural changes in mean and variance; ARCH-M (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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