The IDE geographical simulation model: predicting long-term effects of infrastructure development projects

Kumagai Satoru, Gokan Toshitaka, Ikumo Isono and Souknilanh Keola

No 159, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: It is important to be able to predict changes in the location of populations and industries in regions that are in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed with two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of populations and industries in East Asia in the long-term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure projects on the regional economy at sub-national levels. The basic structure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in this article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves.

Keywords: Southeast Asia; East Asia; Economic geography; International economic integration; Geographical Simulation Model; Spatial economics; 東南アジア; 東アジア; 経済地理; 国際経済統合; 空間経済学 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D59 F29 O53 R49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-06-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-dev, nep-geo, nep-ppm, nep-sea and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 159. 2008-06-01

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