Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Hazama Yasushi

No 202, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

Keywords: Electoral volatility; Economic voting; Panel analysis; Elections; Turkey; Constitutional law (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-05-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cdm, nep-cwa and nep-pol
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 202. 2009-05-01

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