Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Hazama Yasushi

No 46, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Keywords: Retrospective voting; Elections; Turkey; 選挙; トルコ (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-dcm and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 46. 2006-01-01

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