Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

Kuchiki Akifumi

No 65, IDE Discussion Papers from Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO)

Abstract: We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

Keywords: Cycles; Unpredictability; Negative bubbles; Governments; Financial market; Money; Financial crises; Asia; 政府; 金融市場; 貨幣; 金融危機; アジア (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G18 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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Published in IDE Discussion Paper = IDE Discussion Paper, No. 65. 2006-06-01

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