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Should contact bans be lifted in Germany?

Jean Roch Donsimoni (jdonsimo@uni-mainz.de), René Glawion (rene.glawion@uni-hamburg.de), Bodo Plachter (plachter@uni-mainz.de), Constantin Weiser and Klaus Wälde
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Jean Roch Donsimoni: Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
René Glawion: Hamburg University
Bodo Plachter: Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

No 2008, Working Papers from Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz

Abstract: Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would be reached already mid April. The number of sick individuals would fall below 1,000 at the beginning of July. When restrictions are lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should rise quickly again from around April 27. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

Keywords: COVID19; SARS-CoV-2; forecast Germany; epidemic; pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2020-04-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_2008.pdf First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

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