Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks

Johann Burgstaller

No 2006-16, Economics working papers from Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria

Abstract: Bond yield and retail interest rate spreads are presumed to lead real activity on the basis of financial accelerator mechanisms, markup cyclicality or simply because they are forward-looking. Empirical results for Austria show that retail rate spreads outperform many other indicators in this respect. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for a financial accelerator being behind this finding.

Keywords: Leading indicator; business cycle; shock propagation; financial accelerator; bank markup (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 G12 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fin, nep-fmk and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_16

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