Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?

Philip Hans Franses and Rianne Legerstee
Additional contact information
Rianne Legerstee: Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, Postal: Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 29, issue 3, 331-340

Abstract: Model-based SKU-level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU-level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model-based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1129 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:331-340

DOI: 10.1002/for.1129

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by Derek W. Bunn

More articles in Journal of Forecasting from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing () and Christopher F. Baum ().