Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence

İbrahim Özmen () and Şerife Özşahin ()
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İbrahim Özmen: Selcuk University
Şerife Özşahin: Necmettin Erbakan University

Economic Change and Restructuring, 2023, vol. 56, issue 4, No 22, 2695-2728

Abstract: Abstract This study explores the time-varying effect of global energy price and non-energy price changes on domestic inflation in Turkey using monthly data from January 2003 to February 2022. There is significant evidence of full-sample causality from global and non-energy prices to domestic inflation. Time-varying causality findings show that global energy and non-energy prices have a strong time-stamp effect on domestic inflation. In addition to this, the threshold findings show that energy and non-energy prices differ at the time of domestic inflation in a nonlinear relationship. The multi-structural break test findings clearly indicate energy and non-energy price break date collinearity with Turkey’s inflation. Time-varying causality findings provide evidence that energy prices—the first wave—and non-energy prices—the second wave—create two waves on domestic consumer prices. However, this does not seem to be the only problem policymakers have to overcome in the fight against domestic inflation, because both price indices are effective through Turkey’s currency channel.

Keywords: Global energy price; Non-energy price; Domestic inflations; Time-varying causality; Nonlinear estimators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10644-023-09530-8

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