Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*

Pierre Siklos

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2022, vol. 19, issue 3, No 3, 459-490

Abstract: Abstract I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role.

Keywords: Great Influenza 1918–20; Globalization; Openness; Financial integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F36 N10 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1

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