Are business cycles in emerging market economies alike?

Bira Zhahadai ()
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Bira Zhahadai: Illinois Wesleyan University

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2023, vol. 20, issue 4, No 2, 537-561

Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the predictions of real business cycle theory on the roles of total factor productivity (TFP) and financial frictions to explain business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs). I obtain evidence about TFP, price of capital, risk premium, and collateral constraint shocks by estimating structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) on a Brazilian sample from 1999Q1 to 2018Q4 and a Mexican sample from 1997Q1 to 2018Q4. On each sample, two SVARs are estimated. One SVAR identifies shocks by imposing restrictions on their short-run impact. The other SVAR is grounded on restrictions that shocks have long-run effects on business cycles in EMEs. Estimates of the SVARs show the TFP shock is the main driver of business cycle movements in Brazil and Mexico. However, this evidence is produced by the SVAR under the long-run restrictions, which indicates the identification of shocks matters to the explanation of business cycles in EMEs. Next, the Brazilian and Mexican business cycles are markedly different, as the contributions of shocks to aggregate fluctuations vary across the two countries. Hence, findings of this paper suggest although not all business cycles are alike in EMEs, “the cycle is the trend” view on aggregate fluctuations in EMEs remains valid. The empirical results of this paper are in support of the economic policies that aim to robustify the productivity process of EMEs.

Keywords: Business cycles; Emerging market economies; Structural vector autoregressions; Short-run identification; Long-run identification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10368-023-00567-8

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