The impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports by technology classification in emerging economies

Ferdi Akpilic () and Caglayan Aslan ()
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Ferdi Akpilic: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Caglayan Aslan: OSTIM Technical University, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Trade

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2024, vol. 21, issue 4, No 8, 907-931

Abstract: Abstract This study examined the relationship between exports grouped by technology classification and movements in the real effective exchange rate for emerging markets. Export demand models were estimated for 24 emerging markets, covering high, medium–high, medium–low, and low technology groups from 2010:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Long-term elasticities were estimated using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) panel estimator. The results indicate that exchange rate uncertainty negatively impacts exports in medium–high and medium–low technology groups, as well as total exports. Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimators broadly support these findings. Country-specific analysis revealed a predominantly negative relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports in countries with significant coefficients. Overall, the study highlights the importance of considering country-specific characteristics and technology classifications when studying the link between exchange rate uncertainty and exports.

Keywords: Exports; Emerging markets; Exchange rate uncertainty; Panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00626-8

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