The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19

Timo Mitze and Reinhold Kosfeld ()

Journal of Geographical Systems, 2022, vol. 24, issue 1, No 2, 5-31

Abstract: Abstract This work is concerned with the spatiotemporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Germany. Our goal is twofold: first, we propose a novel spatial econometric model of the epidemic spread across NUTS-3 regions to identify the role played by commuting-to-work patterns for spatial disease transmission. Second, we explore if the imposed containment (lockdown) measures during the first pandemic wave in spring 2020 have affected the strength of this transmission channel. Our results from a spatial panel error correction model indicate that, without containment measures in place, commuting-to-work patterns were the first factor to significantly determine the spatial dynamics of daily COVID-19 cases in Germany. This indicates that job commuting, particularly during the initial phase of a pandemic wave, should be regarded and accordingly monitored as a relevant spatial transmission channel of COVID-19 in a system of economically interconnected regions. Our estimation results also provide evidence for the triggering role of local hot spots in disease transmission and point to the effectiveness of containment measures in mitigating the spread of the virus across German regions through reduced job commuting and other forms of mobility.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Mobility; Job commuting; Containment measures; Lockdown; Spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 I18 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:24:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10109-021-00349-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/10109/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10109-021-00349-3

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Geographical Systems is currently edited by Manfred M. Fischer and Antonio Páez

More articles in Journal of Geographical Systems from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().