Economic convergence or divergence? Modeling the interregional dynamics of EU regions, 1985–1999

Giuseppe Arbia () and Jean Paelinck

Journal of Geographical Systems, 2003, vol. 5, issue 3, 314 pages

Abstract: In this paper we start from a continuous time framework derived from the classical predator-prey model in order to analyze the recent dynamics of regional evolution in the EU. The model describes a system of interrelated units obeying a complex functional dynamics that at any moment may encompass divergent forces. After briefly reviewing the modeling framework presented elsewhere (Arbia and Paelinck 2002), we consider the dynamics of per-capita income in 119 NUTS-2 European regions in the years 1985–1999, and fit the model using Simultaneous Dynamic Least Squares (Paelinck 1996b). The model is shown to fit the empirical data well. The – potential divergence – leads up to a formidable coordination task for public authorities responsible for regional policies, as they are supposed – if their aim is absolute convergence in an economic sense, meaning equalizing incomes per head – to produce at any time a consistent set of regional policies for all the regions concerned, and not only for the less developed ones. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Keywords: continuous time; differential equation; regional convergence; prey-predator model; spatial dependence; spatial modeling; C13; O00; R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10109-003-0114-z

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