Time-Varying Effects of Housing and Stock Returns on U.S. Consumption

Beatrice Desiree Simo-Kengne (), Stephen Miller, Rangan Gupta and Goodness Aye

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2015, vol. 50, issue 3, 339-354

Abstract: This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock returns on the growth rate of US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that at the 1- and 2-year horizons and over time, generally the housing return positively affects consumption growth while the stock return negatively affects it. For the 3- to 6-year horizons, the two return shocks generally exert a negative, but small, effect on consumption growth. These opposite responses to changes in housing and stock returns suggest different mechanisms through which wealth affects consumption. Further, the housing return effect generally increases after 1980. The sub-period from 1980 to 2012 includes the 1997/2002 asset price boom/bust where house prices continued to rise moderately as stock prices fell. These findings suggest that the magnitude of the relative return effects differs with both time and horizons and also depends on whether prices increase or decrease. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Keywords: Asset Returns; Consumption; Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive; C32; E21; G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-014-9470-3 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:50:y:2015:i:3:p:339-354

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11146/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11146-014-9470-3

Access Statistics for this article

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics is currently edited by Steven R. Grenadier, James B. Kau and C.F. Sirmans

More articles in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().