An Easily Implemented Framework for Forecasting Ticket Sales to Performing Arts Events

Daniel S. Putler (putler@sauder.ubc.ca) and Shilpa Lele (shilpa@straitegy.com)

Marketing Letters, 2003, vol. 14, issue 4, 307-320

Abstract: This paper presents an easily used framework for modeling ticket sales to performing arts and entertainment events. Unlike existing efforts in this area, our framework allows us to: (1) model demand for events that consist of more than a single performance; (2) account for the influence of promotional effort on ticket sales; and (3) account for "sellouts" of some performances. The framework is applied to ticket sales for a university theater company, where it predicts ticket sales well in both an estimation and holdout sample. We discuss how the framework has influenced the company's marketing decisions.

Date: 2003
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