Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?

Panagiotis Papaioannou, Lucia Russo, George Papaioannou and Constantinos Siettos ()

Netnomics, 2013, vol. 14, issue 1, 47-68

Abstract: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently many studies stressing the psychological and social dimension of financial behavior have challenged the validity of the EMH. Toward this aim, over the last few years, internet-based communication platforms and search engines have been used to extract early indicators of social and economic trends. Here, we used Twitter’s social networking platform to model and forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate in a high-frequency intradaily trading scale. Using time series and trading simulations analysis, we provide some evidence that the information provided in social microblogging platforms such as Twitter can in certain cases enhance the forecasting efficiency regarding the very short (intradaily) forex. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Keywords: Exchange rate forecasting; Efficient market hypothesis; Social microblogging; Web mining; Timeseries analysis; Neural networks; Twitter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11066-013-9079-3

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