Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment

Pu Chen and Willi Semmler

Open Economies Review, 2018, vol. 29, issue 4, No 8, 853-878

Abstract: Abstract Okun’s (1962) seminal paper is an important study on economic growth and unemployment but a detailed exploration of the effect of productivity growth on unemployment has been left aside. Yet, the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment has been debated since long. In this paper we present stylized facts on the link between productivity growth and unemployment for the short and long run, and present model variants that demonstrate that in the short run productivity growth may increase unemployment while in the long run the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment are likely to co-vary negatively. Using US data, empirically we decompose the time series of unemployment rate and productivity growth into long run and short run components and show empirical evidence that the long run and short run components co-vary as predicted by some theories.

Keywords: Okun’s law; Technological unemployment; Multi-regime study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E27 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-018-9486-z

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