An Evaluation of Projection Methods for Detailed Small Area Projections: An Application and Validation to King County, Washington

Neal Marquez (), Xiaoqi Bao (), Eileen Kazura (), Jessica Lapham (), Priya Sarma (), Crystal Yu (), Christine Leibbrand () and Sara Curran ()
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Neal Marquez: Sociology, University of Washington
Xiaoqi Bao: Geography, University of Washington
Eileen Kazura: Washington State Department of Health
Jessica Lapham: Social Work, University of Washington
Priya Sarma: Public Health, University of Washington
Crystal Yu: Sociology, University of Washington
Christine Leibbrand: Office of Planning and Budgeting, University of Washington
Sara Curran: Sociology, University of Washington

Population Research and Policy Review, 2024, vol. 43, issue 2, No 7, 29 pages

Abstract: Abstract Population projections are used by a number of local agencies to better prepare for the future resource needs of counties, ensuring that educational, health, housing, and economic demands of individuals are met. Meeting the specific needs of a county’s population, such as what resources to provide, where to target resources, and ensure an equitable distribution of those resources, requires population projections which are both demographically detailed, such as by age, race, and ethnicity, and geographically precise, such as at the census tract level. Despite this need, an evaluation of which methods are best suited to produce population projections at this level are lacking. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of several cohort-based methods for small area population projections by race and ethnicity. We apply these methods to population projections of King County, Washington and assess the validity of projections using past population estimates. We find a clear pattern that demonstrates while simplified methods perform well in near term forecasts, methods which employ smoothing strategies perform better in long-term forecasting scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model’s incorporating multiple stages of smoothing can provide detailed insights into the projected population size of King county and the places and groups which will most contribute to this growth. Detailed projections, such as those provided by multi-stage smoothing methods, enable city planners and policy makers a detailed view of the future structure of their county’s population and provide for them a resource to better meet the needs of future populations.

Keywords: Projections; Small areas; Race and ethnicity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11113-023-09848-1

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