The probability of majority inversion in a two-stage voting system with three states

Serguei Kaniovski () and Alexander Zaigraev ()
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Serguei Kaniovski: Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)
Alexander Zaigraev: Nicolaus Copernicus University

Theory and Decision, 2018, vol. 84, issue 4, No 2, 525-546

Abstract: Abstract Two-stage voting is prone to majority inversions, a situation in which the outcome of an election is not backed by a majority of popular votes. We study the probability of majority inversion in a model with two candidates, three states and uniformly distributed fractions of supporters for each candidate. The model encompasses equal or distinct population sizes, with equal, population-based or arbitrary voting weights in the second stage. We prove that, when no state can dictate the outcome of the election by commanding a voting weight in excess of one half, the probability of majority inversion increases with the size disparity among the states.

Keywords: Majority inversion; Two-stage voting; Population weights; Voting weights (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11238-018-9660-1

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