Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools

A. Philip Dawid () and Julia Mortera ()
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A. Philip Dawid: University of Cambridge
Julia Mortera: Università Roma Tre

Theory and Decision, 2020, vol. 88, issue 3, No 5, 453-456

Abstract: Abstract Bradley (Theory Decis 85:5–20, 2018) develops some theory of the linear opinion pool, in apparent contradiction to results of Dawid et al. (Test 4:263–314, 1995). We investigate the sources of these contradictions, and in particular identify a mathematical error in Bradley (2018) that invalidates his main result.

Keywords: Expert testimony; Linear opinion pool (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0

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