Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

Gerard Jong (jong@rand.org), Andrew Daly, Marits Pieters, Stephen Miller, Ronald Plasmeijer and Frank Hofman

Transportation, 2007, vol. 34, issue 4, 375-395

Abstract: This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Keywords: Traffic forecasts; Travel demand; Uncertainty; Confidence interval; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:375-395

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11116/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation is currently edited by Kay W. Axhausen

More articles in Transportation from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla (sonal.shukla@springer.com) and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (indexing@springernature.com).