Latent stage model for carsharing usage frequency estimation with Montréal case study

Cen Zhang, Jan-Dirk Schmöcker () and Martin Trépanier
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Cen Zhang: Kyoto University
Jan-Dirk Schmöcker: Kyoto University
Martin Trépanier: Polytechnique Montréal, Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks Logistics and Transport (CIRRELT)

Transportation, 2022, vol. 49, issue 1, No 8, 185-211

Abstract: Abstract In order to predict the monthly usage frequency of members of a car-sharing scheme by analysing the gradual change of behaviour over time, a new model is proposed based on the Markov Chains model with latent stages. The model accounts for changing patterns of frequency from soon after signing up to later stages by including five latent user ‘life stages’. In applying the model to panel data from Montreal’s free-floating carsharing service the authors calculate each user’s ’lifetime’ applied to ‘system operation time’, the time period since the start of the scheme. Three-fold validation reveals effective performance of the model for both lifetime and system operation time dimensions. The model is further applied to illustrate how previous carsharing experience and the extension of the scheme to a larger area can affect usage frequency changes. We conclude that this approach is effective for usage prediction for novel transport schemes.

Keywords: Carsharing; Usage frequency; User life cycle; Stochastic process; Hierarchical hidden Markov models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11116-021-10173-9

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