'Age of Large-population Countries' and Marxian Optimal Growth Theory

Hiroshi Onishi and Ryo Kanae
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Hiroshi Onishi: Faculty of Economics, Keio University
Ryo Kanae: Faculty of Economics, Kyoto University (Lecturer)

No 2014-009, Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series from Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University

Abstract: While it appears that small-population economies were advantageous for growth when Asia's newly industrialized economies (NIEs) were expanding rapidly, we are now seeing a different trend in which large-population countries like China and India have become the most rapidly growing nations in the world. This is true for the BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a whole. Brazil and Russia also have large populations of over 100 million, and their geopolitical and economic influence is crucial. This is one of the most important features of the present geopolitical economy. The present paper first demonstrates this trend statistically and then proposes the hidden historical law underlying these phenomena. This anti-Malthusian law can be explained by Marxian Optimal Growth Theory, as developed by our research group. This shows that each country experiences its own rapid growth phase over a certain period and finally realizes a higher per capita GDP similar to that of the present advanced nations. Under this trend, GDP balance among countries will become closer to the population balance among countries. It should be a much more equal world.

Keywords: NIES; BRICS; Large-Population Country; Marxian Optimal Growth Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E11 N30 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2014-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-his and nep-mac
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