Risk Premiums in the Cross-Section of Commodity Convenience Yields

Thomas Bollinger and Axel Kind ()
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Thomas Bollinger: Department of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Switzerland
Axel Kind: Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany

No 2015-17, Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz from Department of Economics, University of Konstanz

Abstract: This paper investigates risk premiums embedded in commodity convenience yields, i.e., returns on convenience-claim investments. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, monthly convenience yields are extracted from a broad sample of commodity futures by using a three-factor model. Second, a multi-factor asset pricing model with conditional betas is estimated to determine risk premiums embedded in convenience-claim returns. The empirical analysis is carried out on monthly cross-sections of 22 commodities in the period from January 1991 to December 2011. It reveals the existence of significant premiums embedded in convenience yields for systematic risk factors typically related to other asset classes. While the predictability of the risk premiums via instrumental variables is limited, changes in conditional betas are found to forecast variations in convenience yields.

Keywords: Commodity Futures; Convenience Yield; Term Structure; Risk Premiums (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 G12 G13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2015-08-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-mac
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