Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?

Adrian Pagan

Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers from Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum

Abstract: There is much scepticism about the ability to predict recessions. Harding and Pagan (2010b)have argued that this is because the definition of a recession involves the signs of future growth rates of economic activity and there is little predictability of these from the past. Turkey represents an interesting case study since growth in Turkish GDP features quite high serial correlation, suggesting that growth itself is predictable. Thus I want to examine whether it is possible to predict recessions in Turkey. As there seems only a small published literature on this it will be necessary to indicate what definition of recession is to be used and what information might be available to make a prediction of such an event. We found that using information from past macroeconomic variables would result in only limited success in predicting Turkish recessions.

Keywords: Conditional; CAPM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2010-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1027.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden (http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1027.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1027.pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Can Turkish Recessions be Predicted? (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:koc:wpaper:1027

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers from Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sumru Oz ().