The Effect of 3.6 Million Refugees on Crime

Murat Kırdar, Ivan Lopez Cruz () and Betul Turkum ()
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Ivan Lopez Cruz: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University
Betul Turkum: Department of Economics, European Economic Institute

Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers from Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum

Abstract: Most studies examining the impact of migrants on crime rates in hosting populations are in the context of economic migrants in developed countries. However, we know much less about the crime impact of refugees in low- and middle-income countries—whose numbers are increasing worldwide. This study examines this issue in the context of the largest refugee group in any country—Syrian refugees in Turkey. Although these refugees are much poorer than the local population, have limited access to formal employment, and face partial mobility restrictions, we find that total crime per person (including natives and refugees) falls due to the arrival of the refugees. This finding also applies to several types of crime; the only exception is smuggling, which increases due to the population influx. We also show that the fall in crime does not result from tighter security; we find no evidence of a change in the number of armed forces (military and civil personnel) in the migrant-hosting regions.

Keywords: refugees; refugees; crime; security; immigration-crime nexus; civil war. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 J15 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2021-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-isf, nep-law, nep-mig and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The effect of 3.6 million refugees on crime (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of 3.6 Million Refugees on Crime (2021)
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