Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Florian Huber and Daniel Kaufmann

No 15-393, KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Abstract: We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time-series properties of the real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a simple benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.

Keywords: Exchange rate models; Trend inflation; Natural rate of unemployment; Taylor rule; Unobserved components-stochastic volatility model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2015-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010513063 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics (2020)
Working Paper: Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics (2019)
Working Paper: Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics (2016)
Working Paper: Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kof:wpskof:15-393

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