Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations

Joseph Briggs, Andrew Chaplin, Soeren Leth-Petersen and Christopher Tonetti
Additional contact information
Joseph Briggs: Goldman Sachs
Andrew Chaplin: New York University, NBER
Soeren Leth-Petersen: Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen

No 24-06, CEBI working paper series from University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI)

Abstract: We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment effects. Identification is achieved with survey data on individuals subjective expectations of their treatment propensity and of their treatmentcontingent outcomes. We use the method to study how child birth affects female labor supply in Denmark. We find limited latent heterogeneity and large short-term effects that vanish by 18 months after birth. We support the validity of the identifying assumptions in this context by using administrative data to show that the average treatment effect on the treated computed using our method and traditional event-study methods are nearly equal. Finally, we study the effects of counterfactual changes to child care cost and quality on female labor supply.

Keywords: marginal treatment effects; survey data; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C52 C83 J13 J22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48
Date: 2024-04-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-inv and nep-lab
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https://www.econ.ku.dk/cebi/publikationer/working-papers/CEBI_WP_06-24.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations (2024)
Working Paper: Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kud:kucebi:2406

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