Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis

Ichiro Iwasaki and Kazuhiro Kumo

No 951, KIER Working Papers from Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: Immediately after the collapse of socialism, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union fell into a serious economic crisis, after which they experienced a gradual recovery. Therefore, without exception, these countries followed a J-curved growth path. However, there were marked differences among them in the length and depth of the crisis and the speed of recovery. In this paper, we perform a comparative meta-analysis of the effect size and statistical significance of structural change, transformation policy, the legacy of socialism, inflation, and regional conflict in order to elucidate the mechanism that generated the J-shaped trajectory in transition economies. The meta-synthesis, which employs 3,279 estimates drawn from 123 previous studies, revealed that while the growth-enhancing effects of structural change and transformation policy were small yet significant, inflation and regional conflict had a highly significant and strongly negative effect on output. In addition, the legacy of socialism might exacerbate the decline in production in the early stages of transition. The meta-regression analysis that simultaneously controls for various research conditions and the assessment of publication selection bias provides supporting evidence for the results obtained from the meta-synthesis.

Keywords: decline; growth; transition economies; meta-analysis; publication selection bias; Central and Eastern Europe; former Soviet Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 O47 O57 P20 P21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68pages
Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP951.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kyo:wpaper:951

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in KIER Working Papers from Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Makoto Watanabe ().