An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates

Tanweer Akram and Syed Uddin

Economics Working Paper Archive from Levy Economics Institute

Abstract: This paper empirically models the dynamics of Brazilian government bond (BGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data in the context of the evolution of Brazil’s key macroeconomic variables. The results show that the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on BGBs’ long-term interest rates after controlling for various key macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and industrial production or economic activity. These findings support John Maynard Keynes’s claim that the central bank’s actions influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds mainly through the short-term interest rate. These findings have important policy implications for Brazil. This paper relates the findings of the estimated models to ongoing debates in fiscal and monetary policies.

Keywords: Brazilian Government Bonds; Long-Term Interest Rate; Bond Yields; Monetary Policy; Short-Term Interest Rate; Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E50 E58 E60 G10 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-pke
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_956.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_956

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economics Working Paper Archive from Levy Economics Institute
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Elizabeth Dunn ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).