Fighting the spread of Covid-19: was the Swiss lockdown worth it?

Nicolò Gatti () and Beatrice Retali ()
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Nicolò Gatti: Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Facoltà di Scienze Economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera
Beatrice Retali: Istituto di Economia Politica (IdEP), Facoltà di Scienze Economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera

IdEP Economic Papers from USI Università della Svizzera italiana

Abstract: The implementation of a lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a strong debate in several countries. This makes it crucial to shed light on the actual benefits of such kind of policy. To this purpose, we focus on the Swiss lockdown during the first wave of Covid-19 infections and estimate the number of potentially saved lives. To predict the number of deaths in absence of any restrictive measure, we develop a novel age-structured SIRDC model which accounts for age-specific endogenous behaviors. Considering also the additional deaths due to the shortage of healthcare resources, our estimates suggest that the lockdown prevented approximately 35,000 fatalities. The corresponding monetary benefits, computed using the value of statistical life, largely exceed 14% of the Swiss GDP. Our results also show that more than 65% of benefits are concentrated among people older than 65. This calls for some compensation in favor of young generations, who benefit less from the policy despite bearing most of its costs.

Keywords: Covid-19; lockdown; benefit-cost; behavioral responses; intergenerational inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D63 D91 H12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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