Causes of the 2000s Food Price Surge: New Evidence from Structural VAR

Daniel Grabowski ()
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Daniel Grabowski: University of Giessen

MAGKS Papers on Economics from Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung)

Abstract: In 2001 began a rise in the prices of food commodities not seen since the 1970s. Some observers attribute the increase in part to food commodity speculation. This hypothesis is examined by disentangling the impact of speculation on grain prices from that of fundamental supply and demand forces. Even though results point to a generally stabilising infl uence of speculation on prices, speculation is shown to have pushed prices further up during crisis years. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model identified by sign and zero restrictions. The model is estimated for global corn, wheat and rice markets.

Keywords: food price crisis; grain prices; structural VAR; sign restrictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mar:magkse:201631

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