Impact of the Selected Domestic and Foreign Markets Returns on Stock Price in Iran

Leila Argha (), Mohammad Mowlaei (), Mohsen Khezri () and Abolfazl Shahabadi ()
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Leila Argha : Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University
Mohammad Mowlaei : Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University
Mohsen Khezri : Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University
Abolfazl Shahabadi : Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University

Journal of Money and Economy, 2017, vol. 12, issue 4, 481-489

Abstract: One of the features of a financial market, the stock market, in particular, is the market sentiment which is the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. Investors always seek to create a portfolio with minimum risk while maintaining the expected return level. Therefore, perceiving the relationship between the stock returns and markets returns can be helpful for investors to create an optimal portfolio. On this basis, the present study aims at investigating the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) between the returns on the domestic markets (industry stock market and exchange rate) and foreign markets using monthly data of oil and base metals including total metals, copper, steel and returns on the stock price index in Iran during March 2001 to April 2017 using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (DCC-FIAPARCH) approach. The obtained results indicate a statistically significant and positive DCC coefficient between metals, industrial products, and copper returns with the stocks returns. Consequently, it is not possible to put each of these assets with the stocks in an identical situation (purchase or sale), but instead they should be always situations for risk control. However, in connection with other markets, DCC is not significant; accordingly, assets can be placed in the investment portfolio together with the stocks.

Keywords: Stocks; Oil Price; Exchange Rate; Copper; Steel; Dynamic Conditional Correlation; DCC-FIAPARCH (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G11 G15 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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