A Look at the main channels of Potential Impact of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy

Guida Nogueira () and Paulo Inácio ()
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Guida Nogueira: Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia
Paulo Inácio: Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia

No 120, GEE Papers from Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia

Abstract: On June, 2016 the UK decided to leave the EU. The departure date was originally scheduled for March 29, 2019 but the process reached an impasse as the withdrawal agreement, that was negotiated with the European Union, failed to get parliamentary approval. The EU agreed to offer the UK a flexible extension of the Brexit deadline until October 31, but the risk of a no-deal scenario still exists. Since there is no precedent of a Member State withdrawing from the European Union, the implications of Brexit for the EU countries are still highly uncertain. However, countries and industries that have deep economic ties, in terms of international integration, to the UK are the most vulnerable to this departure. In this work we will use trade in value added statistics from OECD-WTO TiVA database and related indicators to depict how exposed and thus vulnerable is Portugal and its sectors to the UK market, delivering a useful contribute for assessing potential impacts of Brexit on the Portuguese Economy.

Keywords: Portugal; Trade in Value Added; Brexit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F12 F60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2019-05, Revised 2019-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-int
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https://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_120.pdf First version, 2019 (application/pdf)

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