Does scientific research output matter for Portugal’s economic growth?

Tânia Pinto and Aurora Teixeira
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Aurora Teixeira: CEF.UP, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

No 174, GEE Papers from Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia

Abstract: The literature on the impact of research output on economic growth has been rapidly expanding. However, the single growth processes of technological laggard countries and the mediating roles of human capital and structural change have been overlooked. Resorting to cointegration analyses and Granger causality tests for Portugal over the last 40 years (1980-2019) four main results are worth highlighting: (1) in the long-run, global and hard sciences (life sciences, physical sciences, engineering and technology, social sciences) research outputs are positively and significantly associated to economic growth; (2) in the short-run, global, hard sciences and soft sciences (base clinical, pre-clinical and health, arts and humanities) foster economic growth; (3) important (long and short-run) mismatches between human capital and scientific production emerged, with the years of schooling mitigating the positive impact of research output on economic growth; (4) structural change processes favouring industry amplify the positive (long-run) association and (short-run) impact of research output on economic growth. Such results robustly suggest that even in technological laggard contexts, scientific production is critical for economic growth, especially when aligned with changes in sectoral production composition favouring industry.

Keywords: Research output; human capital; structural change; economic growth; cointegration analysis; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O30 O38 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2023-07, Revised 2023-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-tid
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https://www.gee.gov.pt//RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_174.pdf First version, 2023 (application/pdf)

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