Is climate change time-reversible?

Francesco Giancaterini, Alain Hecq and Claudio Morana

No 498, Working Papers from University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend component is computed with the Hodrick-Prescott filter rendering a time-reversible closed-form solution. This paper also links the concept of an environmental tipping point to the statistical property of time irreversibility and assesses fourteen climate indicators. We find evidence of time irreversibility in GHG emissions, global temperature, global sea levels, sea ice area, and some natural oscillation indices. While not conclusive, our findings urge the implementation of correction policies to avoid the worst consequences of climate change and not miss the opportunity window, which might still be available, despite closing quickly.

Keywords: mixed causal and noncausal models; time reversibility; Hodrick-Prescott filter; climate change; global warming; environmental tipping points. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2022-05, Revised 2022-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Is Climate Change Time-Reversible? (2022)
Working Paper: Is climate change time reversible? (2022)
Working Paper: Is climate change time reversible? (2022)
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