Issue salience and women's electoral performance: Theory and evidence from Google trends

Michela Cella, Elena Manzoni and Francesco Scervini

No 527, Working Papers from University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper we study, theoretically and empirically, how the belief that the gender of politicians affects their competence on a range of issues may influence electoral outcomes depending on the salience of these issues. We propose a model of issue-specific gender bias in elections which can describe both the presence of a real comparative advantage ('kernel-of-truth' case, or stereotype) and the case of pure prejudice. We show that the bias influences electoral results but it can be partially reversed by successful information transmission during the electoral campaign. We then empirically investigate the relation between issue salience and women's performance, using US data on House and Senate elections. Estimates of issue salience are obtained using Google Trends data. Exploiting the longitudinal dimension of the dataset at district level and an IV strategy to rule out possible endogeneity, we show a positive correlation between the salience of feminine issues and women's electoral outcomes. The average effect is sizable with respect to the share of votes for women candidates, even if not large enough, on average, to increase the probability that women candidates win elections.

Keywords: gender bias; elections; female politicians. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 J16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38
Date: 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-gen, nep-lab and nep-pol
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Related works:
Working Paper: Issue Salience and Women’s Electoral Performance: Theory and Evidence from Google Trends (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mib:wpaper:527

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