Does the choice of interest rate data matter for the results of tests of the expectations hypothesis - some results for the UK
Christian Mose Nielsen
Additional contact information
Christian Mose Nielsen: Department of Economics, Politics and Public Administration, Aalborg University
No 132, Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 from Money Macro and Finance Research Group
Abstract:
Using UK data for the period 1997:3 to 2005:5, this paper examines whether the expectations hypothesis is supported by recent UK data when the short-end of the term structure of interest rates is considered and whether the results of the tests of the expectations hypothesis are sensitive to the choice of data. The main results can be nicely summarized by considering five virtual researchers who test the expectations hypothesis using five different data sets for the 1997:3 to 2005:5 period for the 1 to 12-month maturity spectrum and who get quite different results. The main conclusion to be drawn from the analysis in this paper is thus that robustness check may be very important when testing the expectations hypothesis using the 1 to 12-month maturity spectrum of the term structure. Furthermore, the results suggest that the specific data set used in tests of the expectations hypothesis may be a candidate explanation of a rejection of the expectations hypothesis - along with the possibility that a time-varying term premium and/or a structural break are responsible for the rejection
Keywords: Expectations; hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-02-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.18453.1145733695.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:132
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 from Money Macro and Finance Research Group
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().