 Assessing Malaysia’s Business Cycle indicatorsMichael Meow-Chung Yap No 04-09, Monash Economics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Economics Abstract: An empirical assessment shows that Malaysia’s business cycle indicators can be improved. Turning point detection is not impressive, especially for troughs. Lead times are also variable. However, the relationship between the leading and coincident indicators over the entire cycle shows quite strong correlations from the late 1980s onwards, although lead times have shortened. Empirical evidence is very strong that the leading index Granger-causes the coincident index. Business and consumer confidence surveys also show much promise in improving prediction of the reference cycle. However, implications of the changing economic structure on the performance of the leading index needs to be fully taken into account, especially the emergence of new services sector activities. Keywords: Business/growth cycle; Malaysian economy; growth cycle chronology; turning point analysis; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mos:moswps:2009-04 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Monash Economics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Economics Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.