Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis

Kaustav Das (), Atisha Ghosh () and Pushkar Maitra
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Kaustav Das: University of Leicester
Atisha Ghosh: University of Warwick

No 2021-13, Monash Economics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Voters are assumed to be irrational if they respond to shocks beyond the control of politicians. What if the politicians can respond to such shocks? Using a theoretical model, where shocks can either be responsive (allowing politicians to respond) or nonresponsive, we show that voters are irrational if non-responsive shocks affect electoral outcomes. We test this using data from the 1991 Indian parliamentary elections. In the middle of the election, the leader of the opposition was assassinated. We find that this affected the electoral outcomes indicating irrationality on the part of Indian voters.

Keywords: Voter rationality; Responsive shock; Non-Responsive Shock; Election Outcomes. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H12 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-ore and nep-pol
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