The Economic Cost of Secessionist Conflict in the Philippines

Rhea Molato

Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance

Abstract: This paper estimates the e¤ect of secessionist conflict in the Philippines on the country's economic output. It uses the synthetic control method (SCM) to generate the counterfactual path of per capita real GDP that the Philippines could have achieved in the absence of secessionist conflict. The effect is measured as the di¤erence between actual and synthetic levels of economic output. This paper finds a negative and growing effect of the conflict on the Philippine economy as the conflict persists through time. These estimates are validated by the standard method of inference for studies using the SCM.

Keywords: secession; conflict; economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H77 N40 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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