Foretelling What Makes People Pay: Predicting the Results of Field Experiments on TV Fee Enforcement

Kateřina Chadimová, Jana Cahlikova and Lubomir Cingl

Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance

Abstract: One of the current challenges in ï¬ eld experimentation is creating an efficient design including individual treatments. Ideally, a pilot should be run in advance, but when a pilot is not feasible, any information about the effectiveness of potential treatments’ to researchers is highly valuable. We run a laboratory experiment in which we forecast results of two large-scale ï¬ eld experiments focused on TV license fee collection to evaluate the extent to which it is possible to predict ï¬ eld experiment results using a non-expert subject pool. Our main result is that forecasters were relatively conservative regarding the absolute effectiveness of the treatments, but in most cases they correctly predicted the relative effectiveness. Our results suggest that, despite the artiï¬ ciality of laboratory environments, forecasts generated there may provide valuable estimates of the effectiveness of treatments.

Keywords: lab experiments; forecasting experimental results; ï¬ eld experiments; behavioral economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 C92 C93 D03 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe and nep-exp
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Journal Article: Foretelling what makes people pay: Predicting the results of field experiments on TV fee enforcement (2022)
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